• Overview
• Final Determination
• Proposed Determination
• Draft Technical Assessment Report
• EPA Technical Projects to Inform the Midterm Evaluation
• EPA Publications Informing the Midterm Evaluation
• EPA Presentations Regarding the Midterm Evaluation

Overview

As part of the 2012 rulemaking establishing the model year (MY) 2017-2025 light-duty vehicle GHG standards, EPA made a regulatory commitment to conduct a Midterm Evaluation (MTE) of the standards for MY 2022-2025. Through the MTE,  the EPA Administrator has decided that standards for model years 2022-2025 are still appropriate given the latest available data and information. EPA examined a wide range of factors, such as developments in powertrain technology, vehicle electrification, light-weighting and vehicle safety impacts, the penetration of fuel efficient technologies in the marketplace, consumer acceptance of fuel efficient technologies, trends in fuel prices and the vehicle fleet, employment impacts, and many others.

EPA’s regulations require several formal steps in the MTE process, including opportunities for public input.

• Step 1: Draft Technical Assessment Report (TAR) issued jointly with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the California Air Resources Board (CARB) with opportunity for public comment. (July 2016)
• Step 2: EPA Administrator made a Proposed Determination with opportunity for public comment. (November 2016)
• Step 3: EPA Administrator made a Final Determination. (January 2017)

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Final Determination

On January 12, 2017, the Administrator signed her determination to maintain the current GHG emissions standards for model year (MY) 2022-2025 vehicles. This final determination finds that automakers are well positioned to meet the standards at lower costs than previously estimated. The Administrator is choosing to retain the current standards to provide regulatory certainty for the auto industry despite a technical record that suggests the standards could be made more stringent.

Highlights of the Final Determination

• Automakers have a wide range of technology pathways available to meet the MY2022-2025 standards, at slightly lower per-vehicle costs than previously predicted. The standards are achievable with very low penetration of strong hybrids, electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, consistent with the findings of a comprehensive 2015 National Academy of Sciences study.
• The standards will save consumers money, significantly reduce GHG emissions and fuel consumption, and provide benefits to the health and welfare of Americans.
• Automakers have outperformed the standards for the first four years of the program (MY2012-2015) and manufacturers are adopting fuel efficient technologies at unprecedented rates, all while vehicle sales have increased for 7 consecutive years.

The Administrator’s determination is based on an extensive technical record, created over 8 years of research, review of several hundred published reports, hundreds of stakeholder meetings, and multiple opportunities for the public to provide input. This Final Determination follows the November 2016 release of EPA’s Proposed Determination and the July 2016 release of a Draft Technical Assessment Report (TAR), issued jointly by the EPA, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), and the California Air Resources Board (CARB). EPA provided opportunities for public comment for both the Draft TAR and the Proposed Determination.

Cover Letter -- EPA Administrator’s signed Cover Letter to the Final Determination.

Final Determination Document -- Final Determination on the Appropriateness of the Model Year 2022-2025 Light-duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards under the Midterm Evaluation (PDF)(33 pp, 626 K, January 2017, EPA-420-R-17-001).

Response to Comments Document -- Final Determination on the Appropriateness of the Model Year 2022-2025 Light-duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards under the Midterm Evaluation: Response to Comments (PDF)(174 pp, 2 MB, January 2017, EPA-420-R-17-002).

Proposed Determination

On November 30, 2016, the Administrator proposed to determine that the MY 2022-2025 standards remain appropriate and that a rulemaking to change them is not warranted. This proposed determination is based on the robust technical record including the draft TAR, input from the auto industry and other stakeholders, and updated analyses. The public comment period for this proposed determination will end on December 30, 2016.

Highlights of the Proposed Determination

• Auto manufacturers can meet the MY 2022-2025 standards at slightly lower per-vehicle costs than predicted in the TAR, and lower costs than predicted in the 2012 rulemaking that established the standards.
• The current standards will save consumers money and provide benefits to the health and welfare of Americans.
• Automakers have a wide range of technology pathways available to meet the standards. Standards are achievable with very low penetration of strong hybrids, electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. This finding is consistent with the conclusions the National Academy of Sciences found in a comprehensive 2015 study.
• Automakers have outperformed the standards for the first four years of the program (MY2012-2015) and manufacturers are adopting fuel efficient technologies at unprecedented rates, all while vehicle sales have increased for 6 consecutive years. There are over 100 car, SUV, and pickup versions on the market today that already meet 2020 or later standards.

Cover Letter –- EPA Administrator’s signed Cover Letter to the Proposed Determination.

Proposed Determination Document -- Proposed Determination on the Appropriateness of the Model Year 2022-2025 Light-duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards under the Midterm Evaluation (PDF) (268 pp, 4 MB, EPA-420-R-16-020, November 2016)

Technical Support Document to the Proposed Determination -- Proposed Determination on the Appropriateness of the Model Year 2022-2025 Light-duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards under the Midterm Evaluation: Technical Support Document (PDF)(719 pp, 16 MB, EPA-420-R-16-021, November 2016)

Comment Period  -- The comment period for the Proposed Determination closed on December 30, 2016. Several organizations requested that EPA extend the public comment period for the Proposed Determination; EPA sent letters explaining our denial of these requests to each of these organizations. The incoming requests for an extension of the comment period are available in the docket noted above. For information regarding the comment period, please see the Federal Register Notice:

Notice of Availability of a Proposed Order: Proposed Determination on the Appropriateness of the Model Year 2022-2025 Light-duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards under the Midterm Evaluation (PDF) (2 pp, 199 K, published December 6, 2016

For additional documents supporting EPA’s analyses for the Proposed Determination, see the Advanced Light-Duty Powertrain and Hybrid Analysis (ALPHA) Tool and the Optimization Model for reducing Emissions of Greenhouse gases from Automobiles (OMEGA) pages.

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Draft Technical Assessment Report (TAR)

EPA, NHTSA, and CARB jointly issued a Draft TAR for public comment in July 2016. The Draft TAR was a technical report, not a decision document, and examined a wide range of issues relevant to the 2022-2025 standards.

Highlights of the Draft Technical Assessment Report:

• Automakers are innovating in a time of record sales and fuel economy levels. The results of the Draft TAR show that manufacturers are adopting fuel economy technologies at unprecedented rates. Car makers and suppliers have developed far more innovative technologies to improve fuel economy and reduce GHG emissions than anticipated just a few years ago.
• Our new analysis shows that the standards can be met largely with more efficient gasoline powered cars – we continue to project that only modest penetration of hybrids and only low levels of electric vehicles are needed to meet the standards. The Draft TAR shows that manufacturers can meet the current standards for MY 2022-2025 with conventional gasoline vehicles that use internal combustion engines with well-understood technologies. This is consistent with what the National Academies of Science found in a comprehensive 2015 study. Manufacturers can meet the standards at similar or even lower costs than what was anticipated in the 2012 rulemaking with substantial fuel savings payback to consumers.
• The National Program preserves consumer choice, even as it protects the environment and reduces fuel consumption. The National Program is designed to ensure that consumers can continue to buy the differing types of vehicles they need, from compact cars, to SUVs, to larger trucks suitable for towing and carrying heavy loads. Owners of every type of new vehicle will enjoy gasoline savings and improved fuel economy with a reduced environmental footprint.
• Executive Summary -- Draft Technical Assessment Report: Midterm Evaluation of Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards for Model Years 2022-2025 – Executive Summary (PDF) (15 pp, 588K, EPA-420-D-16-901, July 2016)
• Draft Technical Assessment Report: Midterm Evaluation of Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards for Model Years 2022-2025 (PDF) (1217 pp, 36.5MB, EPA-420-D-16-900, July 2016)
• Appendices -- Draft Technical Assessment Report: Midterm Evaluation of Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards for Model Years 2022-2025 (PDF) (118 pp, 5.6MB, EPA-420-D-16-900app, July 2016)

For additional documents supporting EPA’s analyses for the Proposed Determination, see the Advanced Light-Duty Powertrain and Hybrid Analysis (ALPHA) Tool and the Optimization Model for reducing Emissions of Greenhouse gases from Automobiles (OMEGA) pages.

The comment period for the Draft Technical Assessment Report closed on September 26, 2016. For information regarding that earlier comment period, please see the Federal Register Notice:

Notice of Availability of Midterm Evaluation Draft Technical Assessment Report for Model Year 2022–2025 Light Duty Vehicle GHG Emissions and CAFE Standards (PDF) (4 pp, 229 K, published July 27, 2016)

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EPA Technical Projects to Inform the Midterm Evaluation

• EPA’s National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Laboratory (NVFEL), Ann Arbor, MIThrough the National Center for Advanced Technology (NCAT) located at EPA’s National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Laboratory (for more information, see: Vehicles and Fuels Emission Testing) in Ann Arbor, Michigan, we are researching future advanced engine and transmission technologies to support modeling, advanced technology testing, and demonstrations (for more information, see: Test Data for Light-duty Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Technology).
• This new study examines the mass reduction potential for a full-size light-duty pickup truck.
  • Mass Reduction and Cost Analysis—Light-Duty Pickup Truck Model Years 2020-2025 (PDF) (1018 pp, 54.9MB, EPA-420-R-15-006, June 2015)
  • CAE Baseline and Lightweight Models (ZIP) (1 pg, 71 MB, June 2015)
• NVFEL's National Center for Advanced TechnologyState-of-the-art cost teardown studies, with FEV, for fuel efficient technologies, including mild hybrids and diesel vehicles
• Research on consumer issues, including an assessment of vehicle affordability, a study of willingness-to-pay for various vehicle attributes, and content analysis of auto reviews
  • Searching for Hidden Costs: A Technology-Based Approach to the Energy Efficiency Gap in Light-Duty Vehicles (PDF) (55 pp, 1.0 MB, EPA-420-D-15-010, November 2015)
  • Searching for Hidden Costs: Presentation made at the University of Michigan Energy Institute’s Conference on Transportation, Economics, Energy, and the Environment (TE3)
  • Searching for Hidden Costs: A Technology-Based Approach to the Energy Efficiency Gap in Light-Duty Vehicles, Presentation made at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Annual Conference
• Work on economic issues, including new studies on VMT rebound and manufacturer cost reduction through "learning by doing":
  • Final Report and Peer Review Report for Cost Reduction through Learning in Manufacturing Industries and in the Manufacture of Mobile Sources
  • The Rebound Effect from Fuel Efficiency Standards: Measurement and Projection to 2035 (PDF) (80 pp, 629KB, EPA-420-R-15-012, June 2015)
    • Peer Review (PDF)(193 pp, 2.9MB, EPA-420-R-15-013, June 2015)
• Development of modeling tools:
  • Vehicle simulation modeling (ALPHA - Advanced Light-Duty Powertrain and Hybrid Analysis)
  • Technology feasibility and cost model (OMEGA - Optimization Model for reducing Emissions of Greenhouse gases from Automobiles)
  • Technology packages efficiencies (Lumped Parameter Model)
  • Continued investigation into potential consumer choice modeling:
    • Consumer Vehicle Choice Model Documentation (PDF)(62 pp, 701 K, EPA-420-B-12-052, August 2012)
    • Testing a Model of Consumer Vehicle Purchases (PDF) (42 pp, 883 K, EPA-420-D-15-011, December 2015)
• In addition to working with CARB and NHTSA, EPA is collaborating with DOE on projects involving vehicle light-weighting and battery cost modeling, and Environment and Climate Change Canada/Transport CanadaExit on projects involving aerodynamics, vehicle light-weighting,Exit all-wheel drive vehicles, and other areas.

• Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends Report
• GHG Emission Standards for Light-Duty Vehicles: Manufacturer Performance Report

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EPA Publications Informing the Midterm Evaluation

Throughout the MTE process, EPA’s goal is to publish as much of our research as possible in peer-reviewed journals. EPA staff have published the following peer-reviewed papers so far since 2013. EPA staff are attending numerous technical conferences, and keeping abreast of hundreds of papers in the literature on the wide range of factors we are considering for the MTE.

The following papers are not available for download due to copyright restrictions; however, we are providing links to the abstract and ordering information on the journals’ websites.

• "The Energy Efficiency Gap in EPA’s Benefit-Cost Analysis of Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Regulations: A Case Study,” Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 2015, doi:10.1017/bca.2015.13, Gloria Helfand and Reid Dorsey-Palmateer Exit
• "Developing the AC17 Efficiency Test for Mobile Air Conditioners," SAE Technical Paper 2013-01-0569, 2013, doi:10.4271/2013-01-0569, Sciance, F., Nelson, B., Yassine, M., Patti, A., and Rao, L. Exit
• "Maneuver-based Battery-in-the-Loop Testing - Bringing Reality to the Lab," SAE Int. J. Alt. Power, 2(1):2013, doi:10.4271/2013-01-0157, Dagci, O., Pereira, N., and Cherry, J. Exit
• "Development of Advanced Light-Duty Powertrain and Hybrid Analysis Tool," SAE Technical Paper 2013-01-0808, 2013, doi:10.4271/2013-01-0808, Lee, B., Lee, S., Cherry, J., Neam, A., Sanchez, J., and Nam, E. Exit
• "Modeling and Validation of Power-Split and P2 Parallel Hybrid Electric Vehicles,” SAE Technical Paper 2013-01-1470, 2013, doi:10.4271/2013-01-1470, Lee, S., Lee, B., McDonald, J., Sanchez, L., and Nam, E. Exit
• "Modeling and Validation of Lithium-Ion Automotive Battery Packs," SAE Technical Paper 2013-01-1539, 2013, doi:10.4271/2013-01-1539, Lee, S., Lee, B., McDonald, J., and Nam, E. Exit
• "Cost-Effectiveness of a Lightweight Design for 2017-2020: An Assessment of a Midsize Crossover Utility Vehicle," SAE Technical Paper 2013-01-0656, 2013, doi: 10.4271/2013-01-0656, Caffrey, C., Bolon, K., Harris, H., Kolwich, G., Johnston, R., and Shaw, T. Exit

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EPA Presentations Regarding the Midterm Evaluation

EPA also has publicly presented information about our work in numerous forums.

• EPA presentations regarding the MTE
• EPA presentation regarding the ALPHA tool

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