What is ICLUS?

Climate and land-use change are major drivers of global environmental change. Impact assessments frequently demonstrate that interactions between climate and land-use change may create serious challenges for aquatic ecosystems, water quality, and air quality. In many cases, it is impossible to assess the impact of climate change without consideration of land-use dynamics.

The Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project produced spatially explicit projections of population and land-use that are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).

First, social, economic, and demographic storylines from the SRES were adapted for the United States. These modified storylines were then used to create population projections that would reflect different assumptions about fertility, mortality, and immigration through the end of this century.

Next, a mathematical model was used to simulate the migration of people within the United States. Then these county-level population projections are used to calculate the demand for new houses, which are placed across the U.S. landscape. Finally, we use a statistical model to estimate the amount of impervious surface that results from this new residential development.

A geospatial toolset is provided to create and process these high-resolution spatial data, and all of the outputs are available.

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Below is a list of important milestones to the ICLUS project.

Date Milestone
Jan 2017 EPA released the final report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) Version 2
Sep 2016 EPA released ICLUS Data (Version 2) for the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA).
Apr 2016 EPA released the draft report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Version 2, External Review Draft).
Jul 2013 EPA released ICLUS v1.3.2.
Jan 2012 EPA released ICLUS Data for the Third National Climate Assessment.
May 2011 EPA released ICLUS v1.3.1.
Sep 2010 EPA released ICLUS v1.3 and the final user's manual document
Nov 2009 EPA released the ICLUS User's Manual and Tool (External Review Draft) for public review and comment. [Federal Register Dec 8, 2009]
Jun 2009 EPA released the related report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report).
Jan 2009 EPA partnered with USGS to work on the development of a geoprocessing tool.